Saturday, November 30, 2019
Lizzie Borden Essays - American Folklore, Axe Murder, Lizzie Borden
Lizzie Borden L I z z I e B o r d e n A little over a century ago a gruesome double murder was committed, in the 2-? story house at 92 Second Street, in Fall River, Massachusetts. This crime shocked the nation as Lizzie Borden, a 32-year-old Sunday school teacher, went on trial for the murder of her father and her stepmother. An all male jury eventually acquitted her on the accusations. To this day, the murderer of Andrew J. Borden and Abby Gray Borden is still unknown, but in the public mind everyone believes it was Lizzie Borden. Lizzie was born and grew up in Fall River, Mass. She was the youngest daughter of Andrew Jackson Borden, who was a very successful Banker and Sarah Morse Borden. Sarah died when Lizzie was very young and Andrew then married Abby Durfee Gray. Lizzie grew up with an elder sister, Emma. Neither of them has ever married. The sisters hated their stepmother, mainly because of the family's inferior social position. On the day of August 4, 1892, the bodies of Andrew Borden and his wife were found mutilated. As opposed to 40 whacks, in the popular rhyme, 19 blows struck Abby Borden by a hatchet or axe to the back of her head and neck. At the time she was cleaning the guestroom of the family home, at 9:30 am. Andrew Borden, who had returned home around 10:30 am, after his daily business had been attended to, was either napping or reading the newspaper on a couch in the parlor, when he was attacked. 11 blows were rained upon Mr. Borden's head and face, to the point that one eye hung from its socket upon his cheek, and his close friend and physician, Dr. Bowen, couldn't recognize him. There were only two people in or about the house at the time of the killings, Lizzie Andrew Borden and Bridget Sullivan, the Borden's maid. There is some speculation as to others that may have been responsible for these heinous acts. Among the other alleged killers are John Morse, the brother of Andrew's first wife, a secret lover Lizzie was said to have, though never named, Emma Borden, Lizzie's elder sister, and William Borden, who, while legally Andrew's second cousin, was rumored to really be his illegitimate son. Soon after the murders, Lizzie emerged as the prime suspect after John Morse's alibi checked out. She then was arrested and tried on three counts, the murder of Abbey, of Andrew, and of them both and, if found guilty, faced death by hanging. Six days after the murders occurred, she went to court. The all-male jury was put into a difficult position. It was the Victorian Era where women were considered delicate flowers and not capable of killing someone and it was not a common or working class woman they were to judge guilty or innocent, it was a wealthy society lady. After only an hour of deliberating, the jury declared Lizzie to be not guilty. It is said it only took them 15 minutes to decide, but out of respect for the prosecution, they waited another 45 minutes before they informed the court of their decision. What makes the Fall River murders so perplexing is that the motive, the weapon and the opportunity for such a crime are all seemingly absent. When the Fall River constabulary investigated the murders, they found no money or jewelry missing, not even small amounts of change or the packet of bus tickets as were taken in the daytime break-in at the Borden home twelve months earlier. Later, Prosecuting Attorney Knowlton hired a machinist who spent two days cracking open Andrew Borden's safe in hopes of finding a missing will disinheriting both daughters. But Borden died intestate, leaving Lizzie and Emma to inherit his entire fortune. Besides the lack of a clear motive for the murders, there was also the disconcerting lack of opportunity. Fall River found the entire Borden house locked up as usual, and during the two-and-a-half-hour period in which both murders were completed, the maid Bridget was outside the house washing windows and daughter Lizzie was inside the house reading a magazine. Even if one of the two committed the crime,
Tuesday, November 26, 2019
Slowing down Population Essay
Slowing down Population Essay Slowing down Population Essay Slowing down human population growth by Abortion By way of background there have been over 50 million abortions since the United States Supreme Court decision in Roe v. Wade, in the year 1973; in fact, this year marks the 38th Anniversary since that decision was made. Almost four decades later an estimated 19 million infants would now be old enough to contribute to the economy today, paying taxes, and paying into Social Security Fund, but they are not here. Furthermore, can be a huge contributing factor in slowing down human population growth. Since the year 2005, it was announce that the Social Security Fund was in trouble. I wonder if anyone ponders this question about of abortion is slowing down human population growth and could have contribute to the Social Security deficit. Should this question be researched in more depth by congress and/or should abortion be outlaw? Abortion is a personal choice and not left for anyone to judge, but it is a huge factor in slowing down our human population growth. In part, The Social Security deficit is funded through committed payroll taxes under the authority of the Federal Insurance Contributions ACT (FICA). The main part of the program is sometimes referred to as OASDI (Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance). Due to the recent deficit there has been and continues to be intense discussions concerning the Social Security system and the possibility of it becoming insolvent. Social Security currently pays out to approximately 53 million Americans and if the government does not find a workable resolution, it said to be bankrupt by the year 2037. It is a fact that abortions lower labor force growth fewer babies mean fewer consumers, less demand for goods and services, and fewer jobs. Pro-Choice economic argues this point, as they tell us that children are too expensive to justify their actions. In addition, to claiming, that the cost of raising children burdens their parents and it also burdens the public with additional welfare spending when poor and unfit mothers bear children. Additionally, that abortion is necessary to check population growth and all costs associated with it. What if that was not the case and the 19 million infants inevitably grew into responsible adults work and pay taxes, or otherwise spend, save, invest and innovate? This could help the slowing down human population growth and our current Social Security deficit immensely. It has been said that abortion is a moral issue and has nothing to do with the economy. Is the USA government going to slow down human population growth by becoming more like China and Forced Abortion as part as Population Control Regime? Over 30 years this has been in force limiting most urban couple to one child in a bid to curb population growth and conserve its limited resources. China has the worldââ¬â¢s largest population with more
Friday, November 22, 2019
If it was me, Mr. President, Iââ¬â¢d Get a Grammar Lesson.
If it was me, Mr. President, Iââ¬â¢d Get a Grammar Lesson. I have been thinking for some time that I would like to write a blog on the subjunctive.à One of my blog followers, an astute man named Gabe, was kind enough to give me fodder for bringing this topic to the top of my list. For the second time in The Essay Expertââ¬â¢s blogging history, I turn to President Obamaââ¬â¢s grammar bloopers.à The first was his incorrect use of ââ¬Å"tenantâ⬠when he meant ââ¬Å"tenetâ⬠in his speech following the Tucson shootings (The President Makes Grammatical Errors Too!). This week Iââ¬â¢m pointing to Obamaââ¬â¢s statement about the texting transgressions of Congressman Weiner. Obamas Grammatical Error Said the President, according to many news sources, ââ¬Å"If it was me, Iââ¬â¢d resign.â⬠I wonââ¬â¢t spend a lot of time explaining that a more proper structure of this sentence would have been, ââ¬Å"If it were me, Iââ¬â¢d resign.â⬠à Put simply, this is a conditional statement, speaking about an event that is not sure to happen and that did not definitively happen. à Any time you see the word ââ¬Å"ifâ⬠in a sentence, watch out for the subjunctive.à The correct verb form is most likely ââ¬Å"were.â⬠A good explanation of the subjunctive can be found on EnglishClub.com. I also wonââ¬â¢t spend a lot of time harping on the fact that the President used the incorrect form of the pronoun ââ¬Å"me.â⬠The truly correct phrasing would have been, ââ¬Å"If it were I, I would resign.â⬠Note that ââ¬Å"Iâ⬠is a subject pronoun.à But who really talks like that? Meet The Press:à To Quote or Not to Quote? What interests me most is the way the press handled the situation.à You might remember that when the President said ââ¬Å"tenantâ⬠instead of ââ¬Å"tenetâ⬠in his Tucson shooting speech, the transcription of his speech corrected his error.à In the Weiner situation the press went to bat for Obama again but not universally.à Ive created a snapshot of press coverage of the issue below. [Challenge to reader:à How many double entendres can you find in the body of this article? If you find one, report it in the comments!] The New York Times Michael Barbaro of The New York Times covered up (or worked around) the Presidentââ¬â¢s grammatical errors as follows in his article, Obama Suggests Weiner Should Resign: President Obama told NBC News that if he were in Representative Anthony D. Weinerââ¬â¢s position, ââ¬Å"I would resign,â⬠according to a senior network executive. Fox In contrast, Fox quoted Obama word for word in their article, Obama Says He Would Resign in Weiners Position: I can tell you that if it was me, I would resign, Obama told Ann Curry in an interview scheduled to air Tuesday on NBCs Today. How many times do you think that one got tweeted? Youtube/Hollyscoop.com Hollyscoop.com, in the midst of making references to porn star names, fixed the subjunctive issue on its youtube video report, but did not touch the improper pronoun: Now the President is saying, ââ¬Å"I can tell you that if it were me Iââ¬â¢d resignâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ Maybe these folks need a grammar lesson too. Pundit Press Pundit Press left the error waving in the wind, both in the title and body of its article: Title: PRESIDENT OBAMA: If it was me, I would resign. Body: Obama did not call for the resignation of Anthony Weiner, but did say,à I can tell you that if it was me, I would resign. CNN Finally, CNNââ¬â¢s article by Ashley Killough maintains picture perfect grammatical integrity in its headline, Obama On Weiner:à ââ¬ËI Would Resignââ¬â¢, but exposes Obamaââ¬â¢s actual wording in the text: (CNN) President Barack Obama told NBCs Ann Curry in an interview to air on Tuesdays Today, that if he were in Rep. Anthony Weiners shoes, he would leave Congress. I can tell you that if it was me, I would resign, Obama said. Grammatically correct or not, Obamaââ¬â¢s opinion surely had an impact.à Weiner has stepped down, probably due to the uncovering of his lies more than anything else. If you were a reporter, how would you have handled Obamaââ¬â¢s grammatical error?à And why did Clinton survive his sex scandal, whereas Weiner was trampled?à The Christian Science Monitor has shed some light on this question in its article, Why Democrats turned on Anthony Weiner, but not Bill Clinton. I suppose we can all be comforted that no one (even The Essay Expert) will push for politicians to step down due to grammatical transgressions. Category:Grammar Writing TipsBy Brenda BernsteinJune 20, 2011 7 Comments Penelope J. says: June 22, 2011 at 3:05 pm Agree with the above comments. Also, Obamas use of the English language is generally correct except for the occasional slip such as this one unlike his predecessor, famous for his grammatical bloopers. For me, its a big relief to have a president who can speak and pronounce (think nucular) English correctly even though Obamas dependence on the er is annoying. Log in to Reply The Essay Expert says: June 22, 2011 at 6:25 pm Penelope, I couldnt agree more! Log in to Reply The Essay Expert says: June 22, 2011 at 6:23 pm Thanks for your insight Eric. I wonder if Were it me or Were I to would sound stilted. I approve of grammatical errors when necessary to sound conversational. Even If it were I would have sounded a bit high and mighty. Log in to Reply The Essay Expert says: June 22, 2011 at 6:24 pm Rita, I agree completely! And it scares me how many educated people do not know the rules of how to start a sentence with a pronoun or pronouns. I do my best to educate when I can! Log in to Reply The Essay Expert says: June 22, 2011 at 6:25 pm The Wizard of Oz the answer to all our grammatical troubles!! Love it. Log in to Reply Jarom says: June 23, 2011 at 11:05 am That was an enjoyable post Brenda. ðŸâ¢â Log in to Reply The Essay Expert says: June 23, 2011 at 11:32 am Thanks Jarom! Log in to Reply
Thursday, November 21, 2019
WEEK 8 DISCUSSION Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words
WEEK 8 DISCUSSION - Essay Example Additionally, the use of a Professional Development Plan and the use of a Personal Technology Contingency Plan in studying are quite as it ensures continuity when power fails. More so, the use of the Walden University library site and its research databases in the search for articles and Scholarly Peer Reviews was most fundamental in our research. Nevertheless, time management was the ultimate strategy that propelled us to success. Indeed, identifying the best time and the most conducive environment for studying is significant in ensuring that one uses power time to study, down time for leisure, and few distractions during studies. In addition, it is always effective to study the difficult subjects first and adequately distribute the learning time to ensure understanding comes in handy. At the same time, it is necessary to create time for relaxation, entertainment, eating, and sleeping as they replace consumed energy in learning and ensures a fresh mind for further studies. Time management enables timely collection of data, analysis, documentation, and presentation. At the same time, adequate supervision and direction from the instructor is equally significant in a research study. We also discovered that group discussions offers open chances for more understanding on the research topics. Similarly, remain focused to the objectives of the research is also another strategy that guarantees success. However, to enhance success in a group, one must ensure teamwork and participation. I equally took keen interest on Walden residency and the Research Center (Center for Research Support), watched the Webinar, and learned more on Doctor of Business Administration. As a as a doctoral student, one has to participate in a Walden residency for purposes of research and scholarship. The terms and conditions guiding academic residency stipulate that one may only register for one residency per term. The PHD residency
Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Discuss 3 strategies that you could adopt to help manage pupil's Essay
Discuss 3 strategies that you could adopt to help manage pupil's challenging behaviour - Essay Example Moreover, it is not recommended for behaviors that are abusive, or destructive such as perpetration of outright lies, failure for compliance. Most importantly, inattentive and withdrawn pupils should not be ignored by the teachers. Instead, teachers can apply redirecting strategies such as addressing the pupil at a close range, keeping eye contact or visual cues to remind him of the acceptable behaviors (Day, 2007). Consequences as a strategy ââ¬â this is appropriate for gross misconduct. The penalties to be faced by the pupils must be logical and clear, appropriate, applicable, and can be enforces fairly immediately. The school should therefore draw a proper discipline policy document with clearly outlined restrictions regarding such serious misbehavior outbursts among the pupils in school (Day, 2007). Provision for time-out strategy ââ¬â the misbehaved child is taken to a separate room away from other pupils but under the teacherââ¬â¢s watch for about five minutes in a bid to release the tension that could escalate further. It is recommended for circumstances of serious misconduct by the pupils (Day,
Saturday, November 16, 2019
British Air Essay Example for Free
British Air Essay Strategy: In this context, strategy is to be taken as the nature and also the direction a company can take in light of the choices which are at its dispose. Therefore, from this definition of strategy, strategic responses can be inferred to mean the responses that an organization takes in achieving its strategies and hence strategic responses. Nature: refers to the very essence of the company, for instance BA is an airline and hence in the airline industry. Direction: refers to where the organization in question (BA) is headed and hence strategic responses. Pestle Analysis: It refers to a methodology whereby the macro environment is analysed. It will be used to analyze the political, economic, sociological, technological, legal and environmental forces affecting the airline industry under which BA operates and to which this forces impacts on the strategic making of BA. Abstract The airline industry is in the service industry which experiences very volatile changes all over the world and hence companies have to keep up with the changes as well as plan for future changes and challenges in the service industry of airlines through strategic making. Strategy making is an important aspect in the organization in light of the organization succeeding in the environment it is operating in. Though the airline industry is changing like any other typical service industry, it does not mean that the airline industry can afford to lag behind or sleep in terms of making strategies suitable for the now markets tastes and the then (future) markets tastes. Therefore the paper critically reviews the corporate strategy of British Airways (BA), the companyââ¬â¢s competitive strategies through critical appraisal of the companyââ¬â¢s strategy, industry and company analysis. However, an overall industry analysis is undertaken before any analysis of the companyââ¬â¢s strategy through analysis of a three dichotomies impact in the company and in the context of three paradoxes in the company and the perspectives which are applicable to the paradoxes. Industry Analysis Overview BA is a renowned airline in the UK and among the largest airlines in the world, facts which are derived from fleet size of the airline, the number of passengers carried and the number of international flights made by the airline. It was established in 1971 with the motives of gaining control of BOAC and BEA which was the then nationalized airlines alongside other two airlines, which were Cambrian Airways and the Northeast Airlines. The merger of the four companies that formed the presently BA airline was effected in 1974 and become a state owned company. However, the company was later privatized in 1987 and its expansion was gained through acquiring the British Caledonian together with Dan Air in 1992. BA is currently trading in the UK Market share as the largest airline in terms of the fleet size and boasts of being in 2nd position in terms of its market share (IATA 2012), trading under the name of International Airlines Group following a merger in 2011 with Iberia. In the global arena, the presence of BA is felt through the company being 5th largest airline in terms of the passengers who are flown using the BA airline (See; Figure 1, position of BA in the global arena). Current and Future Key Issues Affecting the Airline Industry In researching on the current and future key issues affecting the airline industry together with researching the trends and the competitive forces that are affecting the airline industry in the modern times, in light of BA strategy making and the influences that are to effect on BA, a pestle analysis, SWOT analysis and the Porterââ¬â¢s Five Force Analysis are the tools that are going to be utilised. However, for greater specificity, the focus of the pestle analysis is the European Airline Industry. Pestle Analysis Political Issues Having state owned airline, which are owned by governments and therefore enjoys government protection resulting to regulated competition. This classic example of government regulation of international air was seen in BA in the merger of British Caledonian together with Dan Air in 1992, to combat competition on long haul routes. Development of aviation policies which are politically generated, for instance, the Aviation policy in UK of increasing the capacity at Heathrow, which according to Civil Aviation Authority are only short term measures that would do Europe no good in terms of competing with other global competitors for instance USA, China and India. The idea is to have more capacity through building other airports (Reals n.d.). In UK, airlinesââ¬â¢ belonging to another country are not allowed to operate within the route of another country (cabotage) and hence eliminates competition in the airline industry in the UK for there is no competition from the non ââ¬â European countries. Increase in APD (Air Passenger Duty) by 8% for which all airlines have to comply and which can translate to less travels to the UK for ADP ultimately increases the cost of travels (BBC News 2012, 1st April). Airlines constrains in terms of adhering to government policies for instance the pledge by the UK government to reduce carbon emissions by 60% reflected in the UK Climate Change Bill. Economic Factors Severe crisis in world economics where financial systems have been destabilized and paralyzed and therefore needs to be restored to stability, otherwise translates to less travels by air. Stiff competition in the airline industry in the UK due to presence of competitors who even offer low fares flights. Competition was brought about by the deregulation of the Airline Industry in UK Socio ââ¬â Cultural Factors UKââ¬â¢s ageing population which is approximated to rise over the years. Projections in UKââ¬â¢s populations estimates that there would be more elderly people than there are presently (see; Figure 2 and Figure 3 for the projections) Accessibility of airline travels by the lower social groups in the UK Technological Factors Development of cleaner engines in the aviation industry which means that airlines like BA have to adopt the new technologies and also in light of the pledges in support of governmentââ¬â¢s policies to reduce carbon emissions. New operating procedures which can be as a result of sudden changes in weather patterns The use of Bio ââ¬â fuel by the airline industry is the various developments in the world of technology that the airline industry has to deal with. Environmental Factors Development of environmental policies for instance the UK Climate Change Bill Health scares which mostly are as a result of the changes in climate and weather patterns for instance earth quakes and bird flues. Emissions policy in the UK, for instance the move to have airlines charged for their share of green house gas contribution on flights that are to and fro Europe. Legal Factors Open sky agreement ending the protection of national carriers and introducing completion in the airline industry. EU regulatory changes; for instance the increased call for better care of the customer US regulatory changes; for instance the ban on liquids and gels past the screening checkpoints affects the customers of air transport mode who may be in possession of such goods (liquids and gels). BAââ¬â¢s SWOT Analysis Strengths A Strong Brand Global appeal Established Fleet Operations Latest fleets that provide the calm to its customers Innovativeness in the development of products and services by the company Strong analytical and marketing skilfulness Weaknesses The organizationââ¬â¢s culture (the ââ¬Å"usâ⬠culture) Decline in operations efficiency Unhealthy financial performance Lack of provision of competitive customer packages Poor marketing strategies that are to reinforce competitiveness of the company to the standard of its competitors Opportunities Global tourism, which continues to increase due to globalization Technological advancements in the airline industry UKââ¬â¢s ageing population Corporation tax reductions Threats Competition from low fares airlines (e.g. British Airways Low Cost Airline {BALOW}) Increase in ADP by 8% Oil price volatility Increase in regulatory conditions and laws which are varying Substitute means of transport like electric trains and buses The ever changing customer behaviour which is hard to predict Porterââ¬â¢s Five Force Analysis Porterââ¬â¢s Five Forces study is important in order to check whether BAââ¬â¢s proposed strategies are to become profitable to the organization (Porter 2008). Diagram illustrating a simplified 5 Forces Model By Micheal Porter; adopted from http://www.brs-inc.com/porter.asp, Analysis distinct to BA as provided below: Degree of Rivarly BA operates both the small and the long flights BA is different in policies and terms with their competitors in the airline industry Other companies like Virgin Atlantic criticisms of some of BAââ¬â¢s strategies for instance the merger of BA with AA and thus disregarding the companyââ¬â¢s strategies to its customers. Threat of Entry Competitors are discouraged from entering the market by; Existing firms in the airline industry having a competitive advantage Changing new technlogy Transformed government policies Threats of Substitutes Internal substitutes include;busses, cars, electric trains External substitutes include; international airlines like EasyJet and Virgin Atlantic Buyer Power Availmability of the internet to consumers increases the consumerââ¬â¢s conciousness and exposes the consumers to BA competitors. Supplier Power Supplierââ¬â¢s makes use of trade unions to have a high bargaining power Market characterised by suppliers having a high power BA has only two supply manufacturers of its aircrafts and a sole fuel supplier The Paradox of Markets versus Resources The airline industry being a very volatile industry has to survive through tough financial times, for instance economic recessions. In light of all the changes that occur in the airline industry, an organization has to continuously adapt to the environment in which it is operating in. In light of BAââ¬â¢s environment, i.e. the service industry, it is paramount that the organizationââ¬â¢s strategic thinkers acknowledge that imitation of what other companies are doing in the market may not always produce the same results and hence BA needs to constantly study the market to identify the asymmetries that keeps emerging in the service industry and hence develop the asymmetries to capabilities for the organization. This therefore proposes that the organization has to keep in touch with the market for instance through continuous research and development of the organizationââ¬â¢s products and services and in light of the companyââ¬â¢s strategy of becoming an airline of choice to customers of long and short haul premium. BA differentiation from its competitors is seen through continuous research and development of the industry which can be inferred through the analysis of the SWOT, PESTLE and the Porters Five Forces tool, continuous improvements of the companyââ¬â¢s products and services to its customers for instance through maintaining the organizationââ¬â¢s networks in the long, short and cargo segments. In addition, BA as a front-line in the airline industry has an advantage over its competitors due to its long presence in the industry which dates to the years where it was a state owned airline. This clearly shows that in adopting some strategies for instance the acquisition of Iberia, BA tries to make its presence felt in the global arena. In addition, the organization resources allows the organization to apply the inside out logic as compared to its competitors who may not have a good command of resources at their dispose and therefore making BA have a competitive advantage. The inside out logic follows that for a firm to gain a competitive advantage over its competitors, it must have the capability of converting the processes of production in a quick and cheap way and which BA has exhibited and continues to exhibit through its various acquisitions of other airlines and through mergers formed with other airlines. BAââ¬â¢s strategy that is consistent with achieving its strategy of being an airline of choice to customers of long and short haul premium is through acquisition of other airlines so that all customers are within in its reach enabled through the mergers and the acquisitions. While the theories of completive advantage suggest that for an organization to gain competitive advantage, the organization must establish a cost effective way of attaining its strategies. This means that the companyââ¬â¢s operational costs are lowered and this leads to the company having a competitive advantage over its competitors. Therefore, BAââ¬â¢s strategy of mergers and acquisitions is geared or leans towards the company having a global presence in the world and hence appealing to its customers and reduction of operational costs. The reality of the environment that the organization operates in is realised through the SWOT, PESTLE and analysis of Porters five force (Fine 2009). In as much as an organization has to adapt to the environment for instance through continuous development of services and products to meet the ever changing needs of the consumer, the resources that are at the dispose of an organization in light to adapting to the current trends, tastes and preferences of the consumers in the industry can indicate otherwise. A companyââ¬â¢s resources refers to the tangible and the intangible resources for instance land, money and materials which are tangible while the intangible resources include the rational resources for instance the relationships and reputation and the competencies which include the knowledge and capabilities. One of BAââ¬â¢s strategies is becoming an airline of choice to customers of long haul premium and which is counter acted by strategies for instance through continuous research and development in order to identify the tastes and the preferences of the customers, continuous improvements in products, services and networks and through maintaining its presence in the long, short and cargo segments. However, these strategic responses are evaluated against a background of whether the market needs of the consumers are the once to guide the strategy making process of the firm or the firm is the one to leverage the strategies that BA is to take owing to the fact that whether there are adequate resources to respond to the needs of the markets so identified through the research and development process in order for BA to attain its strategy of becoming the airline of choice to customers of the premium long haul (Clegg, Kornberger Pitsis 2008). BAââ¬â¢s markets versus Resources The strategic responses put forth by BA illustrates its commitment towards attaining it strategy of becoming an airline of choice to customers of premium long haul which is achieved through BA building a terminal which increased the operations of the airline. In addition, BA also appeals to customers through transforming the customerââ¬â¢s service in that the customer service exceeds punctuality and hence customers are more satisfied which represents the rational resources of the company. BA has also continued to grow in order to meet at the crossroads with the needs of the customers through launching of routes from London to St Kitts, launch of the open skies and also flights from continental Europe to countries in North America. In addition, BA also made Lââ¬â¢Avion and started to fly from London to NY JKF. The expansion is made in the efforts of BA coordinating its efforts to have a more international perspective that is cable of meeting the demands of the customers. BA Plc (2010), recognises that there are 5574 BA resources oversees and approximately 35, 920 in the UK. However, greater specificity is to be achieved through coordinating the resources and market availability (Schneider, Gunnarson Niles-Jolly 1994). BAââ¬â¢s commitment to the needs of the customers is seen through the purchases of aircrafts which are modern which are also in the effort of appealing to customers. Other ways through which BA appeals to its customers is through being corporate responsible through its commitment in reducing carbon emissions (Johnson, Scholes, Whittington 2008). Therefore BA is driven by the outside ââ¬â in logic other than the inside ââ¬â out logic for the balance between the companyââ¬â¢s resources and the markets availability will always indicate a different shift where the company strategies are more bound towards meeting the demands of the market and hence the outside ââ¬â in logic prevails. The Paradox of globalization versus localization Globalization is a strategy that is being adopted by international corporations in order for them to gain a competitive advantage over competitors. Strategic tensions that a company for instance BA has to face in light of globalization revolves around the concept of globalization that is to be adopted in light of achieving strategic goals. For instance, one of BAââ¬â¢s strategy is to increase its global presence with the strategic tensions in attaining this objective being whether global is to be taken in the terms of a worldwide scope that is to refer to the geographic presence of BA in the world, worldwide similarity of the BAââ¬â¢s products for instance, using the word global to refer to the homogeneity of BAââ¬â¢s products around the world or whether globalization (Thompson, Strickland Stappenbech 1994) would be in the context of the integration of the operations of BA, that is linking the world as a system through its services (See Figure 5 for illustrations of the dim ensions of globalization). A different tension lies in whether BA is to respect the differences that exist between markets defined by national boundaries which can be done through designing products and services that meet the needs of customers in different countries. The paradox of globalization and localization is a challenge that BA has to address in light of its strategy of having a global presence with questions ranging on how the company can address the globalization synergies and at the same time remain relevant in addressing the local synergies. BAââ¬â¢s Globalization and Localization To begin with, one of the ways through which BAââ¬â¢s strategy of global presence is achieved is through the strategic response of having a global connectivity for all the customers and this is achieved through BA establishing tier in most of the major cities in the world or through expansion which is gained through BA partnering with other airlines for instance the low fares airlines or through mergers for instance the merger of BA with Iberia, code sharing with Kingfisher carrier in India (in 2010) and the recent acquisition of BMI from Lufthansa in 2012. In addition, BA is one of the largest airlines in the UK a position that the company has gained through having a large fleet size, flies to over 300 destinations in the world and has shareholdings in BA city Flyer, Comair, Flybe, Open Skies, AIG, ICCR and BMI. In addition, the global presence of BA is felt through BA being the 5th largest airline by scheduled passengers. Without much further ado, the paradox of globalization versus localization for BA is congruent with the dichotomy of whether BA develops a business model distinctively different from its competitors or whether industry logic is the one that largely determines the firmââ¬â¢s strategy. In analysis, the drivers of globalization are market drivers, government drivers and competitorââ¬â¢s drivers which have less to do with BA developing a business model that is distinct from its competitors. As a major airline in UK, BA enjoys economies of scale and understands that it must have the oligopoly characteristics where firms operating in an oligopoly market cannot act independently on their own (De Wit Meyer 2010) and hence disputing the fact that BA can develop a business model distinct from its competitors (Porter 1985). Owing to the drivers that make a firm to be globalised, BAââ¬â¢s strategies are interdependent with its competitors. For instance, deregulation brought new agreements for example the EU ââ¬â US Open Skies agreement in 2008 which brought a shift to competition in Transatlantic Routes and as a result the US Carrier Deltas, US Airways and the Continental started operations at Heathrow in 2009. Therefore, it is less convincing to claim that BA develops a business model distinct to it for clear facts exists to establish the claim that it does not act independently of its competitors and one of the ways it does so is through the strategy of having a global presence in response of what its competitors are achieving (the operations of other airlines which are taking advantage of deregulation to coin agreements and operate in other countries) (Roth Ricks 1994). The paradox of Responsiveness and Synergy This paradox brings into focus a companyââ¬â¢s dilemma of how to respond to the competition in the industry and whether the company can match the demands of the market and at the same time maintain the responsiveness of the business. In order to have synergies in an organization there is need for a company to unify the different activities carried out in the organization which in some instances may make a company lose its business responsiveness. For a company to attain synergies and at the same time attain responsiveness (Mintzberg, Quinn Ghoshal 2002), the organization must draw out clearly its corporate scope for instances of how many businesses the company should have, corporate distribution, for instance the weight that is to be placed on each business unit in the organization, integrated mechanisms for instance of how the synergies in the companyââ¬â¢s business should be achieved and the management mechanisms that ensures that the synergies so developed are a reality to the company. The meeting point of a business responsiveness and the synergies so created, results to the paradox of responsiveness versus synergy. Business demands presents a business to forces that pull it apart while the synergies pull s the company into an integrated whole. BAââ¬â¢s Responsiveness versus Synergy One of BAââ¬â¢s strategies is to meet the ever changing needs of the consumer for instance meeting the needs of the ageing population which requires the company to provide more value to the products offered to this market segment, reinforce the companyââ¬â¢s brand, development of new products and also through enhancing customer loyalty (Mintzberg Ahlstrand 1998). For the company to achieve the above strategy through the strategic responses discussed above, there is need to coordinate the various units of the organization into a functional whole whereby units so entrusted with the development of new products, researching on upcoming market trends are an integrated whole of the organization and hence the synergies. For instance, the finance department of the organization needs to avail funds to the research and development of the organization so that proper research on upcoming trends is conducted effectively. This principle is consistent with making the parts an integrated part of the whole for the whole to function as one unit, that is the organization (Raynor 2005). The paradox of responsiveness and synergy can be best achieved when the management and the leadership style demonstrates control or managed chaos. In a controlled leadership, a company attains responsiveness (Porter 1996) and at the same time attains synergies because the management of the organization is organized in such a way that the different businesses or the department in the organization are headed by leaders who have the same goals. In a leadership where there is chaos, the synergies and the business responsiveness losses focus for the management is not organised to attain the responsiveness and the synergies (Mintzberg Ahlstrand 1998). . Conclusion In light of the volatility of the airline industry, the strategies that BA has put in place are best achieved when the paradoxes of globalization versus localization, markets versus resources and responsiveness versus synergies are analysed in the context of the dichotomies applicable to paradoxes. In so doing, BA will not only maintain its current position as being the best airliner in the UK, but also attain competitive advantage over other airliners who are its competitors and also potential entrants (McGahan Porter 1997). Bibliographies Reals, K. n.d., UK will Suffer Unless Long ââ¬â Term Aviation Policy is developed: CAA. Retrieved from; http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/uk-will-suffer-unless-long-term-aviation-policy-is-developed-caa-366738/, Retrieved on 28th May, 2012. De Wit, B. Meyer, R. 2010, Strategy Process, Content, Context. New York; Cengage Learning. 4th Ed. Clegg, S., Kornberger, M. Pitsis, T. 2008, Managing and Organizations: An Introduction to Theory and Practice. New York; Sage Publications. Fine, L. 2009, The Swot Analysis: Using your Strength to Overcome Weaknesses, Using Opportunities to Overcome Threats. New York; CreateSpace Publishers. Mintzberg, H. B. Ahlstrand, J. L., 1998, Strategy Safari, New York; Free Press. Schneider, B., Gunnarson, S.K., Niles-Jolly, K. 1994, Creating the climate and culture of success. Organizational Dynamics, 23(1), 17-29 Roth, K. Ricks, D. A. 1994, ââ¬Å"Goal Configuration in a Global Industry Context.â⬠Strategic Management Journal; 15, 103 ââ¬â 120 Porter, M. E. 1996, ââ¬Å"What is Strategy?â⬠Harvard Business Review. pp. 61 ââ¬â 78. Porter, M. E. 1985, Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance. New York; Free Press.
Thursday, November 14, 2019
Huck Finn :: essays research papers
Adventures of Huckleberry Finn The conflict between society and the individual is a very important theme portrayed throughout Mark Twain's The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn. Many people see Huckleberry Finn as a mischievous boy who is a bad influence to others. Huck is not raised in agreement with the accepted ways of civilization. He practically raises himself, relying on instinct to guide him through life. As seen several times in the novel, Huck chooses to follow his innate sense of right, yet he does not realize that his own instincts are more right than those of society. Society refuses to accept Huck as he is and isn't going to change its opinions about him until he is reformed and civilized. The Widow Douglas and Miss Watson try to "sivilize" Huck by making him stop all of his habits, such as smoking. They try to reverse all of his teachings from the first twelve years of his life and force him to become their stereotypical good boy. However, from the very beginning of the novel, Huck clearly states that he does not want to conform to society. "The Widow Douglas she took me for her son, and allowed she would sivilize me...I got into my old rags and my sugar hogshead again, and was free and satisfied." (page 1) Huck says this shortly after he begins living with the Widow Douglas because it is rough for him to be confined to a house and the strict rules of the Widow Douglas. Huckââ¬â¢s father, a dirty and dishonest drunk, was also a problem. He was so angry that his son could read, that he severely beat him and then forced him to stay in a secluded cabin. Huck then devises a plan to escape and heads down river were he teams up with Jim, a runaway slave. The theme becomes even more evident once Huck and Jim set out down the Mississippi. As they run from civilization and are on the river, they ponder the social injustices forced upon them when they are on land. The river never cares how saintly they are, how rich they are, or what society thinks of them. The river allows Huck the one thing that Huck wants to be, and that is Huck. Huck enjoys his adventures on the raft. He prefers the freedom of the wilderness to the restriction of society. Also, Huck's acceptance of Jim is a total defiance of society. Society automatically sees a black person, and even further, slaves, as inferior. They never think of slaves as human beings, only as property.
Monday, November 11, 2019
Game Theory and Life Insurance
Astln Bulletin 11 (198o) 1-16 A GAME T H E O R E T I C LOOK AT L I F E I N S U R A N C E UNDERWRITING* JEAN LEMAIRE Universit6 Libre de Bruxelles Tim decision problem o[ acceptance or rejection of life insurance proposals is formulated as a ~vo-person non cooperattve game between the insurer and the set of the proposers Using the mmtmax criterion or the Bayes criterion, ~t ~s shown how the value and the optunal stxateg~es can be computed, and how an optimal s e t of medina! , mformatmns can be selected and utlhzed 1. FORMULATIONOF THE GAME The purpose of this paper, whose m a t h e m a t i c a l level is elementary, is to d e m o n s t r a t e how g a m e t h e o r y can help the insurers to formulate a n d solve some of their underwriting problems. The f r a m e w o r k a d o p t e d here is life insurance acceptance, but the concepts developed could be a p p h e d to a n y other branch. The decision problem of acceptance or rejection of life insurance proposals can be f o r m u l a t e d as a two-person non cooperative g a m e the following w a y : player 1, P~, is the insurer, while player 2, P2, is the set of all the potential pohcy-hotders. The g a m e is p l a y e d m a n y times, m fact each time a m e m b e r of P. ââ¬â fills m a proposal. Ve suppose t h a t tlfis person is either perfectly h e a l t h y (and should be accepted) or affected b y a disease which should be detected and cause rejection. We shall assume for the m o m e n t t h a t the players possess only two strategies each. acceptance a n d rejection for P~, health or disease for P2. To be more realistic we should introduce a third pure s t r a t e g y for P~: a c c e p t a n c e of the proposer with a surcharge. To keep the analysis as simple as possible we shall delay the introduction of surcharges until sectmn 4. Consequently we can define a 2 x 2 p a y o f f m a t r i x for the insurer. .P~ â⬠¢ P2 healthy proposer A B ill proposer C D acceptance rejection I t iS evident t h a t the worst o u t c o m e for the insurer is to accept a b a d risk. I n t e r p r e t i n g the payoffs as utilities for P1, C should be the lowest figure. Clearly D > B : it is better for the insurer to reject a b a d risk than a good risk. Also A must be greater t h a n B. One anight argue a b o u t the relative * Presented at the 14th ASTIN Colloqumm, Taornuna, October x978. 2 JEAN LEMAIRE values, A and D, of the good outcomes. We shall suppose in the examples and the figures that D > A, but the analysis does not rely on this assumptmn. In order to find the value of the game and the optimal strategy for P~, we can apply ââ¬â ââ¬â the minimax criterion, or ââ¬â ââ¬â the Bayes criterion. 2. THE MINIMAX CRITERION To apply the minimax criterion assimilates P2 to a malevolent opponent whose unique goal is to deceive the insurer and to reduce his payoff. This is of course an extremely conservative approach, to be used by a pessimistic insurer, concerned only by its security level. 2. 1. Value and Optimal Strategies without information Since P2's objective is to harm P~, the game becomes a 2 x 2 zero-sum twoperson game, which can be represented graphicaUy. The vertical axis of fig. 1 is the payoff to P1. His possible choices are represented by the two straight lines. The horizontal axis is P2's choice: he can always present an healthy proposer, or a non healthy, or pick any probability mix in between. The use of mixed strategies is fully justified here since the game is to be played m any times. Since P2's payoff is the negative of Pl's', his objective is to minimize the insurer's maximum gain, the heavy broken line. The ordinate of point M Payoff Io p~ D A B healthy i'x~n hi'Klllh Fig. i LIFE INSURANCE UNDERWRITING 3 is then the value of the game. The abscissa of M provides the optimal mixed strategy of P2 P~'s optimal strategy can be obtained similarly (for more details see for instance OWLN (1968, p. 29) ) Thus, by adopting a mixed strategy (to accept any risk with a probability D-B PA = A + D ââ¬â B ââ¬â c ââ¬Ë and t à ° reject w i t h a p r o b a b i l i t y p n = I AD-BC ? ââ¬ËA),. P~ can guarantee himself a payoff of v~ = A + D ââ¬â B ââ¬â C ââ¬Ë D-C PH = A + D ââ¬â B ââ¬â C whatever the strategy adopted by his opponent. P2's optmml strategy is to present a proportion of good risks. 2. 2. Introduction of Medical Information The preceding model is extremely naive (and vv1Lt only be used as reference for comparisons) since it does not take into account P,'s possibility to gather some information about the proposer's health, by asking him to fill in an health questmnnaire, or by requiring him to undertake a medical examination. This information is of course only partially reliable. But, however imperfect, it can be used to improve P~'s guaranteed payoff. How can the insurer make optimal use of the information lie does have ? It is sufficient for our purposes to characterize tile medical information by two parameters : Ps, tile probability of successfully noticing a bad risk, and PF, tile false alarm probability of detecting a non-existant illness. Let us introduce a third pure strategy for P , : to follow the indications of tile medical information. If tile proposer is not healthy, his illness is detected with a probabihty Ps, and remains undetected with a probability 1 ââ¬â ââ¬â P S . . P i ââ¬Ë S expected payoff thus equals E = Dps + C(1-ps). Smailarly, his payoff m case the proposer is healthy is F = (1ââ¬âpF)A + t~FB. Fig. 2 represents a ââ¬Å"detectorâ⬠with a . 7 success probability and a . 4 false alarm probability. We notice that, m this case, P1 can guarantee himself a payoff v2 > vl by mixing the strategies ââ¬Å"to acceptâ⬠and ââ¬Å"to follow the detector's indicationâ⬠. Of course, for other values of Ps and PF, tile optimal mixed strategy varies and can mix a different set of pnre strategies. The detector can even be so imperfect that the line . FE passes below the intersection of B D and AC; then the medical information is so weak that it is useless. 4 Payoff to Pl JEAN LEMAIRE JD1 J E~ ao % 7o % 4o % 6o % I A. healthy f~n heall hy Fig. 2 2. 3. Optimal Deteclwn System A detector is characterized by a pair (Ps, PFF) of probabilities. The underwriters can decide to render the standards of acceptation more severe, by rejecting more people, thereby incrcasing the success probabihty Ps. Unfortunately, the false alarm probability PF will then increase too. Can gaine theory help us to select an optimal detection system ? Must the company choose a ââ¬Å"nervousâ⬠detector, with a high success probability, but also a high false alarm rate, or a ââ¬Å"pldegmaticâ⬠or ââ¬Å"slowâ⬠system with low probabilities Ps and PF ? Let us assume for sunplicity that all the medical information has been aggregated mto a single discriminating variable (for instance by using discrlminant- or regression analysis). The distribution of the discriminatmg variable for the healthy population will usually overlap the dastribution for the non healthy group. The choice of a particular detector can consist of selecting a critical value, any higher observed value leading to rejection, any lower value to acceptance (this procedure is optimal if the distributions are normal with equal variances Otherwise, tile decision rule can be obtained by a hkelilaood ratio method (see appendix or LEE (1971, pp. 2oi-2o3)). The shaded zone represents the false alarm probability, the dotted region the success probability. Each critical value determines those two probabilities. If the critical value is moved to the right, the detector becomes slower. If it is moved to the left, it become~ more nervous. The set of all the critical values LIFE INSURANCE UNDERWRITING healthy [ non healthy value acceptance t | of the t n g variable dlSCrlmlnat relectlon Fig. 3 Y Ps Fig 4 defines the efficiency curve of the d i s c n m i n a n t variable. The weaker the dlscriminant power of this variable, the nearest to the bissectmg line its efficiency line. A perfect discrimmant variable has a triangular efhciency x y z . The set of all the detectors determines a set of values for the game. The highest value v* for the insurer is reached when the p a y o f f line is horizontal. This can be roughly seen as follows (for a more rigorous proof see LUCE and RAIFFA (1957, pp. 394-396)): the critical value, m o v i n g from left to right, generates a family of hnes with decreasing slope. If . Pat chooses a d e t e c t o r with 6 JEAN LEMAIRE a pos~ttve slope, P= can reduce his payoff below v* b y always presenting h e a l t h y proposers. Similarly, ~f the slope is negative, a continuous flow of non h e a l t h y proposers will keep P~'s payoff below v*. yotl to Pt I D A C h , a i r h~ rmn heulth, Fig 5 The optimal detector can be easdy obtained b y equating the payoffs E and F : Dps + C ( 1 ââ¬â p s ) = A ( l ââ¬â p y ) Then (1) + BpF. D-C C-A PF ââ¬â B ââ¬â A PS + B ââ¬â A defines a straight line in fig. 4, whose intersection with the efficiency line determines the o p t i m u m . N o t e t h a t the optimal s t r a t e g y of P~ is a pure s t r a t e g y : to follow the advace of the d e t e c t o r , the insurer does not have to t h r o w a coin after the mecidal examination m order to decide if tile proposer is accepted. W h a t happens is t h a t the ââ¬Å"noiseâ⬠in the observation system, however small, provides the necessary r a n d o m i z a t i o n in order to p r e v e n t P2 from outguessing the insurer. 2. 4. The Value of Improving the Detectton System A medmal e x a m i n a t i o n can always be improvedâ⬠one can introduce an electrocardmgram, a blood test . . . . for each proposer. B u t ~s it w o r t h the cost ~ An i m p r o v e d discrimination ability means t h a t tile distributions of fig. 3 are more LIFE INSURANCE UNDERWRITING 7 Fig. 6 Payoff to p, D A im rn i ir~f r m i n B C healthy on hl, olt h Fig. 7 separated and present less overlap. The characterizing probabilities ibs and PF are maproved, and the efficiency line moves away from the bisecting line. The intersection of the improved efficiency line with (1) (which is determined only by the payoffs and therefore does not change with increased discrimina- 8 JEAN LEMAIRE tion) provides the new optimal detector; the ass ociated value is higher for the insurer. If the cost of implementing the new system is less (in utilities) than the difference between the two values, it is worthwhile to introduce it. The insurer should be willing to pay any amount inferior to the difference of the values for the increase in lus discrimination ability. 2. 5. A n Example 1 All the proposers above 55 years of age willing to sign a contract of over 3 million Belgian Francs in a given company have to pass a complete medical examination with electrocardiogram. We have selected 200 male proposers, loo rejected because of the electrocardiogram, and loo accepted. This focuses the attention on one category of rejection causes: the heart diseases, and implicitly supposes that the electrocardiogram is a perfect discriminator. This (not unrealistic) hypothesis being made, we can consider the rejected persons to be non healthy. Correspondingly the accepted proposers will form the healthy group. We have then noted the following characteristics of each proposer: x~: overweight or underweight (number of kilograms minus number of centimeters minus loo) ; x2: number of cigarettes (average daily number); m: the presence of sugar x4: or albumine in the urine; x s : the familial antecedents, for the mother, xsâ⬠and the father of the proposer. We then define a variable x0 = l o if the proposer is healthy 1 otherwise nd apply a standard selection technique of discriminant analysis in order to sort out the variables that slgnihcantly affect Xo The procedure only retains three variables xj, x2 and m, and combines them hnearly into a discriminating variable. The value of this variable ~s computed for all the observatmns, and tile observed distributions are presented in fig. 8. As was expected, the discrimination i s quite poor, the distributions strongly overlap. The multiple correlation between Xo and the set of the explaining variables equals . 26. The group centroids are respectively . 4657 and . 343We then estmaate for each possible crltmal value Ps and PF and plot them on fig. lo. t This e x a m p l e p r e s e n t s v e r y w e a k d e t e c t o r s a n d is o n l y i n t r o d u c e d m o r d e r to illus t r a t e t h e p r e c e d m g theory. LIFE INSURANCE UNDERWRITING 9 Fig 8 S Fig 9 We must now assign uNhtlcs to the various outcomes. We shall select A = 8, B = 4, C = o and D = lo. Then the value of the g a m e w i t h o u t medical information is 5. 714, P2 presenting 2/7 of bad usks and P i accepting 3/7 of the proposals. Let us now introduce the medmal reformation nd for instance evaluate the s t r a t e g y t h a t corresponds to a . 5 critical value. On fig. lO, we can read ~s = . 51 a n d PF = 33. Then E = . 5] ? ]o + . 4 9 x o = 5-], a n d F = 3 3 x 4 + . 67 x 8 = 6. 68. The value of this game is 6 121, P2 presenting more bad risks (34. 1%), P I mixing the strategies â⬠r e j e c t â⬠and ââ¬Å"follow d e t e c t o r â⬠with respect- 10 JEAN LE/vIAIRE F i g . 1o Fig. 11 LIFE INSURANCE UNDERWRITING 11 lye probabilities . 208 and . 792 Fig. 11 shows t h a t this s t r a t e g y is too ââ¬Å"slowâ⬠, t h a t too m a n y risks are accepted. On the other hand, a detector w~th a . 4 critical value is too nervous: too m a n y risks are rejected T h e value is 5. 975, P2's optimal s t r a t e g y is to present 74. 7% of good risks, while Pa should accept 29. 7% of the tmle and trust the d e t e c t o r otherwise. To find the o p t i m u m , we read the intersection of the efficiency line with equation (1), in this case 5 ~F = 2 ââ¬â 2 Ps We find PF = . 425 Ps = . 63 with a critical value of . 475. T h e n E = lOX. 63 + ox. 37 = . 425Ãâ"4 + ââ¬â 5 7 5 x 8 = 6. 3. f the insurer adopts the ptu'e s t r a t e g y of always accepting the a d w c e of the medical information, he can g u a r a n t e e himself a value of 6. 3 irrespective of his o p p o n e n t ââ¬Ë s strategy. L e t us now a t t e m p t to improve the me examination b y a d & n g a new variable xT, the blood pressure of the proposer Because of the high positive correlation between xt and xv, the selection procedure only retains as significant the varia bles x. % xe and x7 Fig. 9 shows t h a t the distributions are more separated. In fact, the group centroids are now . 4172 and . 828 and the multiple correlation between xo and the selected variables rises to . 407. T h e efficiency hne (fig IO) is uniformly to the right of the f o r m e r one. The intersection with (1) is PF = 37 P,s = . 652 with a critical value of approxunatxvely . 45. The value of the game rises to 6. 52, an i m p r o v e m e n t of 22 for the insurer at the cost of controlling the blood pressure of each proposer (see fig. 1~). 3' THE BAYES CRITERION I n s t e a d of playing as if the proposer's sole objective were to o u t s m a r t him, the insurer can a p p l y the B a r e s crlter~on, i. . assume t h a t P2 has a d o p t e d a fixed a priori s t r a t e g y H e can suppose (from past experience o1â⬠³ from the results of a sample s u r v e y p e r f o r m e d with a m a x n n a i me&cal examination) t h a t a p r o p o r t i o n Pn of the proposers is hea lthy. The analysis is easier m this 12 JEAN LEMAIRE case, since P2's m i x e d strategy is now assumed to be known P t only faces a one-dimensional p r o b l e m ââ¬Ë he must maximize his utility on the d o t t e d vertical line of fig. 12. Pc/Of f p~ to JD A t B, N C ol eall hy 1 ââ¬â PH PH non heoll hy Fig 12 One notices from fig. 12 t h a t a medical examination is sometimes useless, especially if PH is near 1. In this case, P t ââ¬Ë s optimal s t r a t e g y is to accept all the proposers. In the general case, P t should m a x m n z e the linear function of PF a n d PH [~5FB + (1 ââ¬â ââ¬â pF)A]~SH + [paD + (I ââ¬â ps)c] (1 ââ¬â PH), under the condition t h a t PF and Ps are linked b y the efficiency curve of fig. 4. As far as the example is concerned, this economic function (represented in fig lo) becomes 1. Ps ââ¬â 3 4PF if one supposes that p2's mixed s t r a t e g y is to present 15% of bad risks. 6. 8 + F o r the first set of medical informatio n (xl, x2, x6), tile m a x i m u m is reached at the point Ps = . 28, PF = . 09. Since PH is r a t h e r tngh, this is a v e r y slow detector, yielding a fmal u t d l t y of 6. 914. Comparing to the optimal n n x e d strategy, this represents an increase in utility of . 614, due to tlie exploitation of . P2's poor play. Of course, tliis d e t e c t o r is only good as long as P2 sticks to LIFE INSURANCE UNDERWRITING 3 his mixed strategy. It is uneffective against a change in the proposers' behaviour: if for instance PH suddenly drops below . 725, P~'s utlhty decreases under 6. 3, the guaranteed payoff with the mlmmax strategy In this aspect, the Bayes criterion implies a more optimistic attitute of P1. For the second set of medical information (x2, m, xT), the opblnal detector (Ps = . 45, ~bF = o9) grants a utility of 7. t69 if PH = . 85, an improvement of . 649 colnparing to the ininimax strategy (see fig. 11). 4. T O W A R D S MORE R E A L I S M 4. 1. Surcharges Conceptually, the introduction of the possibility of accepting a proposer with a surcharge presents little difficulty: it amounts to introduce one more pure strategy for the insurer. Payoll to ID A G B heollhy non heoil hy F , g . 13 A detector could then be defined by two critical values C1 and C2 enveloping an m c e m t u d e or surcharge zone. The two critical limits would detelmme 4 probabihtles fl~ f12 p8 p4 = = = = probability probabihty probability probability of of of of accepting a bad risk surcharging a bad risk rejecting a good risk surcharging a good risk 14 JEAN LEMAIRE ealthy non healthy V Surchar~le I C1 C2 Fig. 14 and two efficiency curves. A necessary condition for a detector to be optimal is that the corresponding payoff hne is horizontal, i. e. that (2) (1ââ¬â[emailà protected] + 7b,G + p3B = ( 1 ââ¬â p ~ ââ¬â p 2 ) D + P2H + P~C. The two efficiency curves and (2) determine 3 relations between the probabilities. One more degree of freedom is thus avai lable to maximize the payoff. 4. 2. Increaszng the Number of Strategies of P2 In order to practically implement the preceding theory one should subdivide P2's strategy ââ¬Å"present a non healthy proposerâ⬠according to the arious classes of diseases. P1 should then have as pure strategaes: reject, accept, a set of surcharges, and follow detector's advice, and P2 as m a n y pure strategms as the number of health classes. The graphical interpretation of the game is lost, but linear programming fan be used in order to determine its value and optimal strategies. Appendix: The Likehhood Ratio Method Let ââ¬â x be the value of tlle discriminant variable, healthy, ââ¬â ââ¬â p(H) and p(NH) the a priori probabihties of being healthy or non ââ¬â ââ¬â f(x I H) and f(x ] NH) the conditional distributions of x. We can then compute the a posterior1 probability of being non healthy, given the value of the discriminant variable (1) p = p ( N g ix) = f(x l g H ) p ( N H ) f(x l N H ) p ( g g ) + f ( x l H)p(H)â⬠LIFE INSURANCE UNDERWRITING 15 Similarly p ( H I x) = l ââ¬â p. T h e e x p e c t e d payoffs for the two decisions are EPA = ( 1 ââ¬â p ) A EPR = (1-p)B Define D* to be D* = EPA ââ¬â + pC + po. EPn = [(A-B)+(D-C)]p ââ¬â (A-B). Consequently, D* is a linear function of p, with a positive slope. There exists a critical ~b, ~b,, for which D* = o' (A ââ¬â B ) Pc = ( A ââ¬â B ) + ( D ââ¬â C ) nd the optimal decision rule is to reject if p > Pc ( t h e n D * > o ) a n d t o ââ¬â ââ¬â accept if p < Pc (then D * < o ) . ââ¬â If f ( x [ H) and f(x I N H ) are normal densities with equal variances, there is a one-to-one m o n o t o n i c relationship between p and x, and thus the crttmal p r o b a b l h t y Pc induces a critical value xe. In general, h owever, the cutoff point is not unique. T h e r e m a y be two or more critical values. In t h a t case, we define the likelihood ratio of x for hypothesis N H over hypothesis H as f(x [ N H ) L(x) Of f(x I H) c o u r s e o _-< L(x) =< oo. S u b s t i t u t i n g L(x) in (1) gives 1 P = or 1 L(x) p ( N H ) + p(H) p 1 (2) L(x) ââ¬â p ( N H ) l ââ¬â p â⬠F o r constant a priori probabilities, there is a m o n o t o n e relationship between p and L(x); L(x) goes from o to oo as p goes from o to 1. Therefore, a unique critical likelihood ratio Lc(x) exists and can be obtained b y replacing Pc for p in (2) (3) p(H) A ââ¬â B Lc(x) ââ¬â p ( N H ) D ââ¬â Câ⬠] 6 JEAN LEMAIRE p 1. 0 ~-Pc = 0 5 0. 5 I I I NH H I_-~ X? I J_ X? 2 H ââ¬â Fig. 15 The optimal decision rule reads if L(x) > L c ( x ) , reject; if L ( x ) < L c ( x ) , accept. Notice that, i f A ââ¬â B = D ââ¬â C , pc = 1/2 The decision rule is equivalent to maximizing the e x p e c t e d n u m b e r of correct classifications. F r o m (3) p(H) L e(x) #(NH)â⬠If, furthermore, the prior probabii]ties are equal, Lc(x) = 1. REFERENCES AXELROD, 1~ (1978) Copzng wzth deception, International conference on applied game theory, Vmnna LEE, V,r. (1971) Dec~szon theory and human behaviour, J. Wiley, New York LuCE, R and H ]{AIFFA (1957). Games and deczszons, J Wiley, New York. OWEN, G. (1968) Game theory, ~V. Saunders, Philadelphia.
Saturday, November 9, 2019
Obesity in America
Obesity in America Obesity has become a concern for many Americans. The obesity rates have gotten worse over the years. People are constantly looking for ways to better themselves and improve their appearances. In our society, obesity has become one of the biggest problems of American culture. So many people are obese or overweight due to a number of factors that include behavior, environment, genetics, and medical conditions. Each play significant roles. Behavior relates to a person eating to many calories and not getting enough physical activity.Environment involves work, home, school, or community that provides barriers for active or inactive lifestyle. In addition to all the other factors, Americans do not get enough physical activity. Ehow. com states one of the main reasons of obesity is lack of exercise. A lot of the new technologies have taken up most of our time that going outside and exercise has been taken out. Many of our schools have taken physical education course out o f their curriculumââ¬â¢s. Exercise is not a priority for many Americans, and if we are taking the courses out of the curriculumââ¬â¢s, how are our youngsters able to learn good habits. It also statesLivestrong. com states several factors that contribute to the overall obesity problem. Getting too little sleep can increase a personââ¬â¢s body weight. Lack of sleep can contribute to hormonal changes, which in turn can increase appetite. CBS News conducted a study and ranked lack of sleep as the new overlooked cause of obesity. People tend to eat more during the day to increase their energy, because of not sleeping the recommended number of hours. Livestrong. com also states that Americans are smoking less. This leads to weight gain as your metabolism may slow down after one quits smoking, therefore burning fewer calories.There are many medical conditions that can cause obesity (WebMD. com). Hypothyroidism is a condition that affects ones thyroid. The thyroid produces too litt le hormone in the body and this slows down the metabolism and cause weight gain. Cushing syndrome is another. This is when the adrenal glands produce too much of a steroid hormone called cortisol. This can cause fat to build up in certain parts of the body. Some people with depression also tend to overeat. A doctor can test for symptoms and treat accordingly, if possible. Another possible reason for obesity is stress. According to yesword. om stress could be the main reason for obesity in America. Most Americans have very busy schedules, and eat on the run. Managing oneââ¬â¢s life from work, family and social standpoints have stressed many Americans. Setbacks in personal or professional lives sometimes make one indulge in high caloric foods, known as comfort foods. CBSNews. com cited an article by David B Allison, PhD, University of Alabama at Birmingham as saying we are paying attention to the ââ¬Å"Big Twoâ⬠. They are fast food and too little exercise. He goes on to say t hat other factors are not explored. He and his colleagues suggest other possible reasons for obesity.Pollution can affect hormones. Hormones control our body weight. Most people live and work in temperature-controlled environments. Being in a room too hot or cold actually helps burn calories. Medicine can affect hormones. Drugs used to treat blood pressure, diabetes, and depression can cause weight gain. It has been suggested that the older a woman is when she gives birth; the risk is higher to the child to be obese. , Obese woman tend to marry obese men. There are studies that obesity is genetic, thus a union of two obese people, may pass down this trait for generations.In Conclusion, Obesity is one of the biggest problems people face every day. With better knowledge of contributing factors that can make a person obese, Americans can and will change this trend. It is important to eat properly and exercise, one's life could depend on it. Works Cited http://www. theyesword. com/main_ causes_of_obesity_in_america. htm http://www. webmd/diet/medical-reasons-obesity http://www. livestrong. com/article/354282-what-are-the-main-causes-of-obesity-in-america http://www. ehow. com/how-does_5558417_causes-obesity-america. html David B. Allison, PhD http://www. cbsnews. com/2100-500368_162-1757772. html
Thursday, November 7, 2019
Post-Traumatic Disorder Essays
Post-Traumatic Disorder Essays Post-Traumatic Disorder Essay Post-Traumatic Disorder Essay Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder is a mental disorder that is experienced by some people after going through some shocking or scary events, after a traumatic experience, an individual feels afraid and fear triggers many changes in the body and help defend danger or avoid it (Kozaric-Kovacic 9). The fight to flight situation is the reaction of the trauma, and the body protects the person from harm. If the symptoms persist, the person is therefore diagnosed with PSTD. Some individuals experience unexpected death of loved ones, and the disorder tends to begin early although some start years afterward. Symptoms, Risk factors and onset age The symptoms are supposed to last more than a month, and the situation becomes severe enough to interfere with the relationship or the daily activities. For someone to be diagnosed with PSTD, an adult must have the following for at least one month. The person should have one re-experiencing symptoms like flashbacks. This kind of symptoms allows one to relive the trauma over and over like the racing heart and sweating. The other re-experiencing symptoms that the patient should have so that he can be diagnosed with PSTD is bad dreams and frightening thoughts (Kozaric-Kovacic 9). The re-experiencing symptoms happen as a barrier in the persons everyday routine. The symptoms begin from the person feelings and out of his ideas, and thats why they keep reoccurring. All the things that remind them of the tragic event like object, words or situation and they are also the cause of re-experiencing symptoms. The diagnosis also happens if there is at least one avoidance system, two arousal and reactivity symptoms and mood symptoms and cognition experience. The avoidance symptoms include the person staying away from events that can remind them of their predicament and also when they tend to evade what they are feeling about the traumatic event. Arousal symptoms are constant, and the symptoms can make someone angry and feel stressed. They start to lose appetite, sleep and they become slow in their jobs (Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) Treatments and Drugs Mayo Clinic). Moods and cognitive becomes worse after the traumatic events, but they are not caused by being injured or abusing drug but rather by the alienation of the person with the loved ones. The risk factor of PTSD involves all the ages, but some factors might make someone more susceptible than others like experiencing child abuse or neglect and having mental health problems like anxiety and depressions. If someone has a relative, who has mental problems that include depression or even PTSD and lack of enough support systems from the family and friends (Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) Treatments And Drugs Mayo Clinic). If someone had a combat exposure, threatened with a weapon, being physically attacked and childhood abuse experience together with events like fire, robbery, car crashes or planes, terrorists attacks and other extreme life events that can threaten a person. Course of Disease Progression Symptoms of PSTD begin within the first three months after the traumatic event has happened. There might be a delay of months or even years before the first symptoms have appeared. Acute Stress Disorder is what is experienced first after the immediate aftermath of the trauma (Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) Treatments And Drugs Mayo Clinic). The duration that occurs with complete recovery usually varies within the three months of incubation in almost half of the reported cases. Other patients experience longer periods like 12 months after the trauma. The course is usually characterized by warning and waxing symptoms. The reactivation of symptoms might occur in response to the reminder of the original trauma, trauma events, and life stressors. The duration and severity of the exposure of the traumatic event are the most important factors affecting the developing likelihood of the disorder. The disorder can develop in individuals who do not have the predisposing conditions especially if the stressor is very extreme. There is an evidence of a heritable component to the transmission of PTSD (Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) Treatments And Drugs Mayo Clinic). High degree of vulnerability can be recorded if someone has a history of depression and therefore susceptible to PTSD. Effects on the Individual, Family, Friends and Society PTSD has various effects on the individual and the people around the person lie the family. Individuals who have PTSD have hard feeling emotions and therefore they detach themselves from their loved ones, therefore, giving those who love them a hard time to live around them (Wimalawansa Causes And Risk Factors For Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder). They might have hard personal relationships which might affect their children giving them behavioral problems due to lower parental satisfaction. Family and friends feel guilty about a fact that they cant change what had happened to the individual or they can lie in avoidance and fear of what the person might do when he or she remembers the tragic event (Wimalawansa Causes and Risk Factors for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder). The worrying of family members might cause depression among the members of the family, and they might develop other complications out of anger and the feeling of helplessness. Treatment PTSD can be treated, and when the treatment occurs, it allows someone to have the sense of control over their life (Wimalawansa Causes and Risk Factors for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder). The primary treatment is psychotherapy, and one can also try the secondary treatment of medication. A patient might be required to carry out different types of psychotherapy like cognitive therapy, eye movement desensitization and reprocessing and exposure therapy. Therapy is necessary to allow the individual to acquire control of their life and fight fear after the traumatic event (Salyers et al. 17). Apart from therapy other treatment can be considered which are referred to as a secondary treatment. The treatment is using several medications which can help to improve symptoms of PTSD. The types of medication include antidepressants, prazosin, and anti-anxiety medications. The medications are effective in various ways. Antidepressants are the medication which helps the symptoms of depression and anxiety (Office of Research Development). The drugs assist in eradicating the sleep problem and increasing one concentration. The treatment has been approved by the Food and Drug Administration to treat PTSD. Prazosin is used to treat symptoms like recurrent nightmares and insomnia; the drug only suppresses nightmares in people with PTSD. Anti-anxiety medications improve the feelings of anxiety and stress for a short while so that severe anxiety can rely on; the drugs are however not taken for an extended period since they are said to have the potential for abuse. Barriers of Treatment There have been reported cases of barriers that are related to the treatment of PTSD. It has been recorded that people who have psychological injuries including PTSD receive minimally adequate treatment for their injuries. It has been noted that there has been a big gap between the number of service members and the veterans who had PTSD and the number of people who receive high-quality care for it (Office of Research Development). The gap, therefore, represents extensive human suffering and loss of productivity. Barriers that exists are the patient barriers, provider barrier, and institutional barriers. The patient barrier could be about the employment effects that seeks treatment for PSTD; some have got the mentality that mental health care is ineffective. There is also the barrier that exists when people do not have adequate information on resources for care, financial concerns and logistic problems such as the distance of traveling. The providers barrier might include lack of training, treatment locations issues like transportation in war regions and also a lack of enough time. The organizational level barrier includes lack of requirements to do serious screening and treatment. The treatment programs which require significant time commitment such as the occupational rehabilitation treatment program might be a challenge since the time might be limited (Office Of Research Development). Some of the internal barriers that might be a challenge to treatment include public stigma and nave public exhibit prejudice. A lot of people associate individuals with extensive mental illness with segregation, and they stigmatize the people affected pushing them to the edge. Complications of Treatment and Medication Possible complications related to PTSD include increased the risk of suicide whereby it is brought about by panic and risk of suicidal thoughts. If the persons phobias are high, they might be in danger of committing suicide (Salyers et al. 18). They might also have some depression related diseases like the bipolar disorders which might worsen the anxiety increasing the risk of agitation, insomnia, and concentration problem. Other complications like gastrointestinal disorder, obesity, and loss of weight, allergic conditions and headaches might be increased if the anxiety is not suppressed. Nature vs. Nurture It has been identified that Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder can be a result of nature and nurture together. It has been found that the genes and environment might interact to influence the risk of someone getting PSTD. In the sense of nurturing, individuals who experience a traumatic experience when they were children, they are likely to develop PTSD in adulthood than those exposed to one of the incidents (Salyers et al. 19). The study has indicated that individuals with a particular genetic mutation, have a high risk of developing PSTD. According to the information provided, PTSD is complex anxiety disorder which incorporates re-experiencing, arousal and avoidance to life-threatening circumstances. Moreover, it is an apparent effect of the environmental factors, and it has a heritable component. The study shows that genetic factors cause almost 30% of PTSD symptoms. Hope There is hope for the prevention and treatment of PTSD whereby veterans have conducted the National Center for PSTD to set agenda and research which would be used to educate individuals on the issues related to the disorder and how to prevent and seek treatment (Salyers et al. 20). The research will determine the prevalence of PTSD in women, prolonged exposure therapy, and cognitive therapy will be useful to reduce the symptoms of PTSD. Prazosin drugs have also been found to be effective drugs which can be relied on to reduce high blood pressure, prostate problems and can also be used to suppress nightmares and sleep loss in the PTSD patients. Work Cited Office Of Research Development. Research.va.gov. N.p., 2016. Web. 5 Oct. 2016. Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) Treatments And Drugs Mayo Clinic. Mayoclinic.org. N.p., 2016. Web. 4 Oct. 2016. Kozaric-Kovacic, Dragica. Causes, Diagnoses And Treatment Of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. Acta Neuropsychiatrica21.S2 (2009): 9. Web. Salyers, Michelle P. et al. Barriers To Assessment And Treatment Of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder And Other Trauma-Related Problems In People With Severe Mental Illness: Clinician Perspectives. Community Mental Health Journal40.1 (2004): 17-31. Web. 5 Oct. 2016. Wimalawansa, Sunil J. Causes And Risk Factors For Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder: The Importance Of Right Diagnosis And Treatment. Asian Journal of Medical Sciences5.2 (2013): n. pag. Web.
Tuesday, November 5, 2019
Negative Health Effects of Global Warming
Negative Health Effects of Global Warming Climate change driven by global warming is a reality; the health effects which can be attributed to the changes are measurable and increasing in severity. The World Health Organization reports that between 2030 and 2050, climate change is likely to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year, from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat stress. Key Takeaways: The Health Effects of Global Warming Health effects of climate change have been recorded and are being actively studied in five areasClimate change indicators include sea level rise of 7 inches since 1918, global temperature of 1.9 degrees F higher than in 1880à More than 4,400 people have already been displaced by climate changesHeat waves and other weather-related events are increasing Climate Change and Health According to the United States NASA, in 2019, the global temperature was 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit higher than it was in 1880: 18 of the 19 warmest years since then have occurred since 2001. The global sea level has risen 7 inches in since 1910, a fact which is directly attributable to the rise in ambient and sea surface temperature leading to the shrinking of glacial ice at the poles and in the tops of the highest mountains.à In 2016, the British scientific/medical journal The Lancet announced the Lancet Countdown, an ongoing study to be written byà an international team of researchers tracking climate change and its health impacts, as well as supporting efforts to ease the associated problems. In 2018, the Countdowns groups of scientists were focused (in part) on five health-related aspects: health effects of heat waves; change in labor capacity; the lethality of weather-related disasters; climate-sensitive diseases; and food insecurity.à Health Effects of Heat Wavesà Heat waves are defined as a period of more than three days during which the minimum temperature is greater than the minimum recorded between 1986 and 2008. The minimum temperatures were chosen as measures because coolness in the overnight hours is a vital component helping vulnerable people recover from the heat of the day. Four billion people live in hot areas worldwide and are expected to experience significantly reduced work capacity as a result of global warming. Health impacts of heat waves range from a direct increase in heat stress and heat stroke to impacts on pre-existing heart failure and acute kidney injury from dehydration.à Elderly people, children younger than 12 months, and people with chronic cardiovascular and renal disease are particularly sensitive to these changes. Between 2000 and 2015, the number of vulnerable people exposed to heatwaves increased from 125 million to 175 million. Changes in Labor Capacityà Higher temperatures pose profound threats to occupational health and labor productivity, particularly for people undertaking manual, outdoor labor in hot areas. Increased temperature makes it more difficult to work outside: the global labor capacity in rural populations decreased by 5.3 percent from 2000 to 2016.à The level of heat impacts health as a side effect of the damage incurred to peoples economic well-being and livelihoods, particularly on those who rely on subsistence farming. Lethality of Weather-Related Disastersà A disaster is defined as either 10 or more people killed; 100 or more people affected; a state of emergency is called, or a call for international assistance is made. Between 2007 and 2016, the frequency of weather-related disasters such as floods and droughts has increased by 46 percent, compared to the average between 1990 and 1999. Fortunately, mortality of these events has not increased, due to better reporting times and better-prepared support systems.à Climate-Sensitive Diseasesà There are several diseases which are considered sensitive to climate change, falling into the categories of vector-borne (diseases transmitted by insects such as malaria, dengue fever, Lyme disease, and plague); water-borne (such as cholera and giardia); and airborne (such as meningitis and influenza). Not all of these are currently on the rise: many are being effectively treated by available drugs and health services, although that may not continue as things evolve. However, the cases of dengue fever have doubled every decade since 1990, and there were 58.4 million apparent cases in 2013, accounting for 10,000 deaths. Malignant melanoma, the least common but most lethal of cancers, has also been steadily rising over the past 50 years- annual rates have risen as rapidly as 4ââ¬â6 percent in fair-skinned people.à Food Securityà Food security, defined as the availability and access to food, has decreased in many countries, particularly those in East Africa and Southern Asia. Global wheat production drops 6 percent for every 1.8 degree Fahrenheit rise in growing season temperatures. Rice yields are sensitive to overnight minimums during the growing season: an increase in 1.8 degrees means a decrease of 10 percent of rice yield.à There are one billion people on earth who rely on fish as their principal source of protein. Fish stocks are declining in some regions as a result of sea surface temperature rise, salinity increases, and harmful algal blooms.à Migration and Population Displacementà As of 2018, 4,400 people have been displaced from their homes solely as a result of climate change. Those include Alaska, where over 3,500 people had to abandon their villages because of coastal erosion, and in the Carteret Islands of Papua New Guinea, where 1,200 people left because of sea level rise. That has health impacts on mental and physical health of individuals within those communities, and in the communities where the refugees end up.à That is expected to increase, as the sea level rises. In 1990, 450 million people lived in regions that were below 70 feet above sea level. In 2010, 634 million people (about 10% of the global population) lived in areas that are less than 35 feet about current sea level.à Health Effects of Global Warming Hardest on Poor Nations Climate change and global warming are impacting the entire world, but it is particularly hard on people in poor countries, which is ironic because the places that have contributed the least to global warming are most vulnerable to the death and disease higher temperatures can bring. Regions at the highest risk for enduring the health effects of climate change include coastlines along the Pacific and Indian oceans and sub-Saharan Africa. Large sprawling cities, with their urban heat island effect, are also prone to temperature-related health problems. Africa has some of the lowest per-capita emissions of greenhouse gases. Yet, regions of the continent are gravely at risk for diseases related to global warming. Global Warming is Getting Worse Scientists believe that greenhouse gases will increase the global average temperature by approximately 6 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century. Extreme floods, droughts and heat waves are likely to strike with increasing frequency. Other factors such as irrigation and deforestation can also affect local temperatures and humidity. Model-based forecasts of health risks from global climate change project that: Climate-related disease risks of the various health outcomes assessed by WHO will more than double by 2030.Flooding as a result of coastal storm surges will affect the lives of up to 200 million people by the 2080s.Heat-related deaths in California could more than double by 2100.Hazardous ozone pollution days in the Eastern U.S. could increase 60 percent by 2050. Selected Sources Abel, David W., et al. Air-Quality-Related Health Impacts from Climate Change and from Adaptation of Cooling Demand for Buildings in the Eastern United States: An Interdisciplinary Modeling Study. PLOS Medicine 15.7 (2018): e1002599. Print.Costello, Anthony, et al. Managing the Health Effects of Climate Change: Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission. The Lancet 373.9676 (2009): 1693ââ¬â733. Print.Gasparrini, Antonio, et al. Projections of Temperature-Related Excess Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios. The Lancet Planetary Health 1.9 (2017): e360ââ¬âe67. Print.Kjellstrom, Tord, et al. Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts. Annual Review of Public Health 37.1 (2016): 97ââ¬â112. Print.Mora, Camilo, et al. Broad Threat to Humanity from Cumulative Climate Hazards Intensified by Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Nature Climate Change 8.12 (2018): 1062ââ¬â71. Print.M yers, Samuel S., et al. Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition. Annual Review of Public Health 38.1 (2017): 259-77. Print. Patz, Jonathan A., et al. Impact of Regional Climate Change on Human Health. Nature 438.7066 (2005): 310ââ¬â17. Print.Patz, Jonathan A., et al. Climate Change and Global Health: Quantifying a Growing Ethical Crisis. EcoHealth 4.4 (2007): 397ââ¬â405. Print.Scovronick, Noah, et al. The Impact of Human Health Co-Benefits on Evaluations of Global Climate Policy. Nature Communications 10.1 (2019): 2095. Print.Watts, Nick, et al. The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change: From 25 Years of Inaction to a Global Transformation for Public Health. The Lancet 391.10120 (2018): 581ââ¬â630. Print.Wu, Xiaoxu, et al. Impact of Climate Change on Human Infectious Diseases: Empirical Evidence and Human Adaptation. Environment International 86 (2016): 14ââ¬â23. Print.
Saturday, November 2, 2019
Paraphrasing Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words - 22
Paraphrasing - Essay Example One needs to drink adequate amount of water and have enough rest to overcome heat effects on the body. The WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) system is used to measure heat and its index takes into consideration all environmental factors like humidity, radiant heat and air heat. WBGT can be ascertained through direct and indirect sunlight exposure. WBGT is made up of dry, wet and black globe thermometers. Dry bulb thermometer records air temperature (Tdb). Natural wet bulb thermometer records evaporative temperature (Tnwb) while black globe thermometer records radiant temperature (Tg). The analog and the digital instruments did not exhibit a significant variation in temperature. Both gadgets are designed to measure air temperature. Both instruments effectively record air temperature, but, they will record different measurements owing to the fact that one records temperature readings with decimals unlike the other. The experiment utilized a heater to assess the heating condition in for ten minutes. When the heater was used, we observed that the temperature of the two instruments increased. Air circulation was not measured, but the absence of a fan means there was limited error possibility in our data. Like any other experiment, this experiment is not free of human and gadget errors. Probable sources of error in this experiment include malfunctioning of instruments, thermometer failure on analog instrument and wrong data entry among others. In summary, this experiment is crucial for safety managers who can implement it in work environments with temperature fluctuati on to ensure safe working environment for
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